Sports betting isn’t easy. If it were, Vegas would go bankrupt and Average Joe bettors would all quit their day jobs and live lavishly as millionaires. Seasoned bettors know that there will always be ups and downs. The key is staying the course, remaining disciplined and steadily building your bankroll over the course of the long haul. Here are nine most common mistakes to avoid.
Bankroll & Value Mistakes
1. Changing Unit Size
Bankroll management may be the most important discipline needed to be a successful sports bettor. One of the worst things bettors can do is change their unit size based on how well or how poorly they’re doing. When you’re hot, never double down and risk more because you’re overconfident. When you’re cold, never chase and try to win it all back in one fell swoop. Instead, we encourage most bettors to embrace a flat-betting approach. Flat betting means betting the same amount on every game and risking only 1% to 5% of your bankroll per play.
2. Failing to Shop for the Best Line
Having access to bet at multiple sportsbooks gives you a better chance to find the best odds and have long-term success. Every point and cent matters. For example, say you want to bet the Miami Heat plus the points. Your book is posting Heat +5, but a second book is posting Heat +5.5 and a third book is posting Heat +6. It’s obviously to your benefit to get that extra point and bet at the book posting +6.
Mindset & Emotional Mistakes
3. Having Unrealistic Expectations
New bettors have lofty expectations when they first start betting. Everyone wants to gain prosperity quick overnight and win 70% of their bets or hit a 1,000-1 parlay, but that’s just not realistic. In order to break even when betting on spread sports (considering standard -110 juice), a bettor must win 52.38% of the time. Anything above 55% is considered to be highly appealing.
4. Choosing Your Heart Over Your Head
More often than not, public bettors lose. They bet with gut instinct and are biased toward betting favorites, home teams and overs. They’re also biased toward historic franchises, teams with star players and whoever is getting the most media coverage. By betting against the public, contrarian bettors can capitalize on public bias and get artificially inflated numbers.
5. Gambler’s Fallacy
Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that if something happens more often than normal in a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future. For example, say you walk up to a roulette table and see that a black number has hit the last 10 spins. Your first thought might be to bet on red because it hasn’t happened in a while and it’s “due.” But this logic is flawed: Every spin of the roulette wheel is made independent of past spins.
Trust & Expectation Mistakes
6. Overreacting to Recent Trends
If a team looked great the previous game, or if it’s riding a four-game winning streak, novice bettors will automatically want to bet on it, simply because it’s playing well. But that’s a mistake: Historically, teams coming off a win are overvalued. On the flip side, teams coming off a loss are historically undervalued. This is why we generally encourage bettors to buy on bad news and sell on good news.
7. Buying Into Touts
The sports betting industry lacks oversight and regulation, meaning anyone can start a company or website and begin selling picks. Because there is no regulation, handicappers can tout false records and promise unimaginable wealth in order to obtain business. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. As a result, we encourage bettors to be wary of handicappers promising low-hanging fruit.
8. Going Against the Sharps
In addition to going contrarian, you want to be on the same side as the professional bettors who win at a high rate and have a long track record of success. These bettors are called sharps. When a lot of sharp money comes in on one side of a game, you will see the line move in that direction. This is called a steam move or reverse line movement. By following these moves, you can place yourself on the same side as the pros.
